With the UFC’s next pay-per-view event just over three weeks away, it’s time to start taking a look at the betting odds for the card. Two bouts on the card already have lines introduced, and they are about as different as can be. In the main event, T.J. Dillashaw will defend his newly won UFC bantamweight title against the guy he took it from, Renan Barao. In their first battle, Barao closed as a massive -910 favorite (wager $910 to acquire $100) over Dillashaw. The Team Alpha Male member dominated that first fight, scoring a fifth-round TKO in among the greatest anti upsets in UFC history. This moment, the chances are much nearer, with Dillashaw sitting at -140 and Barao the small underdog in +120 (bet $100 to win $120). There are eight extra bouts on the card which up until now did not have betting lines posted. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas altered that today as he published the full UFC 177 gambling odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook. ———— MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm ET) UFC Bantamweight Title TJ Dillashaw -140 Renan Barao +100 Tony Ferguson -265 Danny Castillo +185 Bethe Correia -160 Shayna Baszler +120 Carlos Diego Ferreira -280 Ramsey Nijem +200 Yancy Medeiros -135 Damon Jackson -105 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Lorenz Larkin -140 Derek Brunson +100 Henry Cejudo -185 Scott Jorgensen +145 Anthony Hamilton -210 Ruan Potts +160 Joe Soto -125 Anthony Birchak -115 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Night, 7:30pm ET) Chris Wade -140 Cain Carrizosa +100 ————– Brad’s Evaluation: I really want Bethe Correia to win this fight, so I do not need to listen to anything about the ridiculous”Four Horsewomen” ever again. That said, Correia has never faced anyone of Baszler’s skill level, especially when it comes to grappling. I believe Baszler can wade through Correia’s striking and drag this battle to the ground where she’ll have a distinct advantage. The biggest worry for me is about Baszler’s long layoff and harm woes of late, and it is more than enough to keep me from betting her. Tony Ferguson seems like a nightmare matchup for Danny Castillo. Castillo has been tagged on the toes a few times before, and unlike his charms against Tim Means or Anthony Njokuani, he won’t have the ability to fall back on his wrestling if the striking doesn’t go to plan. This ought to be quite competitive in all regions, but Ferguson has slight edges that ought to propel him to success. Lorenz Larkin is only 27, but the decline in his performances of late night makes him seem like a 37-year-old. He seemed totally listless against Brad Tavares for 10 minutes, and was quickly dispatched by Costas Philippou. On the flip side, Derek Brunson provided the toughest test of Yoel Romero’s career in his latest bout. It seems like Larkin was really overvalued as a potential while in Strikeforce, while Brunson was overlooked. This is a very tough bout to predict in terms of a side or a complete, so I’ll probably stay away completely. On the other hand, I believe Ramsey Nijem is in for a rough night against Carlos Diego Ferreira. Nijem may have a wrestling edge here, but even that’s questionable. Ferreira is the far better submission grappler, and probably even the better striker at this stage (although Nijem’s improvement in that respect last time outside was fine to see). I expect Ferreira to get the win, and probably put another end on his resume either from his entry skills or Nijem’s questionable chin. Henry Cejudo always made for fascinating bouts when he had been facing completely overmatched contest, so he’s up against a legitimate test in Scott Jorgensen, I must admit this is one of my most anticipated bouts on the card. The physical advantages here belong to Cejudo, as does the wrestling advantage, naturally. He might not have the well-rounded skill set to prevent Jorgensen, but I believe he wins rounds with takedowns and scrambling. Cejudo passed one of the vital tests for prospects in his last outing too, getting cracked square to the jaw and shaking off it to win not just the fight, but that round too. The major question with Cejudo, as always, is: how concentrated is he? Perhaps being signed with the UFC was that the impetus he had to begin taking the game seriously, as in his past appearances (and non-appearances) using Legacy FC, it is quite obvious he has been coasting occasionally. Against Jorgensen that he may not have the ability to eliminate a half effort, and when he does it will make him much more particular. A Legacy veteran making his UFC debut with less fanfare is 39-year-old Richard Odoms. His sole loss came to UFC heavyweight Jared Rosholt, but he’s generally been in a position to control and outhustle competitions to pick up choices. That will be hard against Ruslan Magomedov, who actually possesses decent cardio to get a heavyweight, to go together with his strong striking. Coming from nearly a year layoff, it is difficult to expect much from Odoms, so I expect Magomedov to pick up the win, but he’s someone I fully expect to fade when he could pick up a couple more wins and confront decent competition. The hype on Yancy Medeiros came a bit too fast, and should nearly be snuffed out in this point. His striking defense appeared atrocious against the two Yves Edwards and Jim Miller, and his submission game was practically non-existent as he had been tapped within minutes of hitting the ground against Miller. Maybe that could work to the benefit of his backers from Justin Edwards nevertheless, as Edwards isn’t UFC caliber, even in this time. Edwards has a good guillotine, rather than many other abilities, so Medeiros has this fight to win so long as he doesn’t dive in that weapon. Edwards will likely come out quickly, because he must know that a win will mark the conclusion of the UFC employ. Talking of pink-slip derbies, the loser of Ruan Potts and Anthony Hamilton will probably be shown the door too, because both place on putrid dislpays in their UFC debuts. Potts is an aggressive — but not too talented — grappler, while Hamilton showed enormous holes in his own grappling against Alexey Oleinik. On the flip side, Hamilton has some electricity and Potts was put out with one shot on the floor against Soa Palelei. Either man could finish this battle quickly and I wouldn’t be surprised, or they could play it safe and we can be treated to a truly awful heavyweight MMA. If the price for this bout to go over 1.5 rounds is large enough, I may just take a shot there in hopes the bout is of the bad selection, but I can not see myself putting considerably more than Monopoly money down on this contest.
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